Four rounds into the 2026 Formula 1 season, and Andrea Kimi Antonelli has claimed victory in three of the last four races. Just over a week ago in Miami, the 19-year-old Italian secured his most impressive win yet, moving 20 points ahead of George Russell in the championship standings.
During the offseason, the paddock anticipated a breakthrough from Mercedes and pegged Russell as the primary title contender. Russell did start the season with a win in Melbourne, but fortune has since turned against him. In Miami, the experienced Briton couldn’t match Antonelli’s pace throughout the weekend. Has Russell already lost his championship favorite status after just four races?
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What’s going on with George?
Russell confirmed his favorite status in Melbourne with a race win. But in China, an electronics glitch in Q3 forced him to complete just one flying lap, leaving him behind Antonelli. He then got stuck battling Ferraris in the race and lost ground. In Japan, Russell started behind his teammate again but moved ahead early—only to lose out due to a poorly timed safety car.
In Miami, however, something shifted. Russell couldn’t keep up with Antonelli in any session. In both Friday and Saturday qualifying, George was consistently 0.4 seconds slower than Kimi. Come Sunday, Antonelli fought Lando Norris all race and won, while Russell, despite Charles Leclerc’s troubles, couldn’t even reach the podium. The championship gap more than doubled to 20 points (or 23, without Kimi’s sprint penalty).
Russell blamed the track, claiming he never feels confident in Miami. That’s true—even last year, he lost to Antonelli there and struggled in qualifying. “I hope to get back to more traditional circuits. This weekend was clearly not my usual level,” Russell said. “This is my first poor performance of the season so far.”
Some suggest the slippery asphalt, rougher than in Shanghai and Suzuka, disrupted Russell’s confidence. The new-generation cars generate less downforce, and this time the balance and track conditions hindered him. Last year, similar issues cost Piastri the championship. Telemetry also shows Mercedes drivers used their batteries differently, but that’s a fixable element.
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The Canadian Grand Prix: A turning point
After Miami, Russell lost his favorite tag—but Antonelli hasn’t fully seized it either. The next race is in Montreal, where last year George outqualified Kimi by nearly half a second and then scored a brilliant win. Russell feels more comfortable on the Canadian track, and the paddock expects him to return to form there. At least temporarily, that would prove Miami was just an off weekend.
This season, Russell is fighting not only for the championship (as if that weren’t enough) but essentially for his career. Antonelli is Toto Wolff’s project. The Mercedes boss took a risk by putting the young Italian in an F1 car, but that bet has now paid off. If Max Verstappen decides to move and chooses Mercedes, Russell in his current form could become surplus, forced to find a new seat.
To feel secure, Russell must not just beat Antonelli in equal machinery; he needs to show that without him, Mercedes can’t achieve its current results. The Canadian Grand Prix offers the best chance to remind everyone that Russell can be the team leader and drive them forward. That would make the points gap in the championship almost irrelevant.